ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN DENGAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE MODIFIKASI PADA PERUSAHAAN INFRASTRUKTUR DI BEI PERIODE 2021–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36085/jam-ekis.v9i2.10176Abstrak
This study aims to analyze the financial health and bankruptcy potential
trends of infrastructure sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia
Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2021–2025 period. The research method
employed is descriptive quantitative using the Modified Altman Z-Score
model, which consists of four financial ratios: Working Capital to Total
Assets (X1), Retained Earnings to Total Assets (X2), Earnings Before
Interest and Tax to Total Assets (X3), and Book Value of Equity to Total
Liabilities (X4). The data used includes annual financial statements from
2021-2024 and Quarter III (Q3) interim financial statements for 2025
from eight sample companies. The results indicate a significant
polarization of financial conditions within the infrastructure sector.
Throughout the observation period, State-Owned Construction
enterprises such as Waskita Karya (WSKT) and Wijaya Karya (WIKA)
consistently remained in the Distress Zone, with Z-Score values
continuously declining, even reaching negative figures. Adhi Karya
(ADHI), Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP), and Jasa Marga (JSMR)
tended to fluctuate within the Grey Zone, indicating vulnerable yet stable
financial conditions. In contrast, private and specialized infrastructure
operators such as Bukaka Teknik Utama (BUKK), Citra Marga
Nusaphala Persada (CMNP), and Nusantara Infrastructure (META)
demonstrated much stronger performance, dominating the Safe Zone. A
significant surge was observed in META towards the end of the research
period, as the company successfully strengthened its capital structure to
achieve the highest safety score. In general, low operational profitability
and high liability burdens are the primary factors placing several issuers
at risk of bankruptcy.
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