Sales Trend Analysis and Product Prediction of CV. Sentosa Using Linear Regression

Abstract

This study analyzed sales trends and forecasted the sales of CV Sentosa's products, namely Ater 360 New (X1), Bon Bon (X2), Mini Peanut Crackers (X3), and Marie Susu Int (X4), during the period of January 2019 to August 2023. Monthly sales data were processed using exploratory data analysis (EDA) and linear regression to predict sales trends. The linear regression analysis results indicated that X2 and X3 experienced sales growth with a slope of m=0.01, representing an average increase of 0.01 units per month. Conversely, X4 showed a slight decline with m=−0.01, while X1 remained stable with m=−0.00, indicating minimal changes in sales volume.

The accuracy evaluation of the predictions based on MAE, MSE, and RMSE showed that X2 had the best performance with MAE 0.14, MSE 0.03, and RMSE 0.19, followed by X1 and X3, which had similar prediction errors. Although X4 initially showed significant growth, its model exhibited higher prediction errors (MAE 0.17, MSE 0.04, RMSE 0.21). This study provides valuable insights for CV Sentosa's business strategies, highlighting X2 and X3 as promising products due to their consistent growth trends and accurate predictions. This research provides a strong foundation for CV Sentosa in formulating more effective marketing strategies and product development in the future