Bahasa Inggris

Penulis

  • Tary Asmawati Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
  • Muhammad Hidayat Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
  • Neng Murialti Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36085/jamekis.v8i2.7800

Abstrak

Unemployment is an economic problem that has a direct impact on the welfare of society and the economic stability of a country, including Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze what factors reduce unemployment in the Sumatra Island region using the FD-GMM and Sys-GMM methods, and test the application of Okun’s Law in the Sumatra Island region, the variable used are Economic Growth Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, School Partcipation Rate, with dynamic data panel regrission from 154 regencies/cities during the period 2017-2023 using stata 17 software. The result showed that economic growth had a significant negative effect on unemployment, supporting the application of Okun’s Law. However, government capital expenditure shows a significant positive relationship with unwmployment, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a signifcant negative effect, while domestic investment and school participation rate have no significant effect. These findings highlight the need for more effective management of government spending and investment policies that support sustainable job creation in the Sumatra Island region

Referensi

Abdulai, A.-M. (2022). Unemployment and Foreign Direct Investment Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Ghana. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 15(2), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.152.05

Abouelfarag, H. A., & Qutb, R. (2021). Does government expenditure reduce unemployment in Egypt? Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 37(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-01-2020-0011

Ahmad, H., Rehman, Z. U., Tariq, A., & Ahmad, S. (2024). The effects of military expenditure and inflation on the unemployment in Pakistan. Journal of Humanities, Social and Management Sciences (JHSMS), 5(1), 67–93. https://doi.org/10.47264/idea.jhsms/5.1.4

Akobi, C., & Ogunmola, A. (2024). Application of ARIMA Methods on Unemployment and Inflation Rates in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art, 2(6), 843–869. https://doi.org/10.58578/ajstea.v2i6.4087

Alalawneh, M. M., & Nessa, A. (2020). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Unemployment: Panel Data Approach. Emerging Science Journal, 4(4), 228–242. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2020-01226

Alam. (2007). Ekonomi untuk Sma dan Ma Kelas XI. Penerbit Erlangga.

Altunöz, U. (2024). In the Context of Okun Law, the Relationship Between Real Output and Unemployment Rate in Oecd: a Panel Error Correction and Panel Ardl Approaches. Ekonomika, 103(1), 6–24. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2024.103.1.1

Amidžić, S., Kurteš, S., & Kurušić, D. (2022). Okun`S Law In Bosnia And Herzegovina (1996-2021): An Empirical Analysis Of Okun`S Coefficient Variations. ЗБОРНИК РАДОВА ЕКОНОМСКОГ ФАКУЛТЕТА У ИСТОЧНОМ САРАЈЕВУ, 11(25). https://doi.org/10.7251/zrefis2225011a

Anggraini, Z. (2021). Analisis Pengangguran Terbuka Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2015-2019. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 5(4), 712–722. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v5i04.17820

Ariefianto, Moch. D. (2012). EKONOMITRIKA esensi dan aplikasi dengan menggunakan EViews. Penerbit Erlangga.

Atilaw Woldetensaye, W., Sisay Sirah, E., & Shiferaw, A. (2022). Foreign direct investments nexus unemployment in East African IGAD member countries a panel data approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2146630

Awaludin, Sa’an., Abdad, M. Zaidi., Nikmatullah. (2025). Upaya Menstabilkan Perekonomian Akibat Krisis Ekonomi Melalui Isntrumen Zakat. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, Manajemen, dan Ekonomi Islam (JAM-EKIS), 8(1), 469-482. https://doi.org/10.36085/jamekis.v8i1.7611

Baihawafi, M., & Sebayang, F. A. (2023). Pengaruh Upah Minimum, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dan Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 39–44. https://doi.org/10.29313/jrieb.v3i1.1911

Bayir, M., & Şahin kutlu, Ş. (2019). Mesleki eğitim ve üniversite eğitiminin genç işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi: türkiye üzerine ampirik bir analiz. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(20), 787–806. https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2019.033

Bongani T. Gamede, & Oluwatoyin Ayodele Ajani. (2024). The Role Of Entrepreneurship Education In Mitigating Unemployment Rates Among University Graduates In South Africa. International Journal of Innovative Technologies in Social Science, 4(44). https://doi.org/10.31435/IJITSS.4(44).2024.3118

C. Onuoha, F., & Agbede, M. O. (2019). Impact of Disagregated Public Expenditure on Unemployment Rate of Selected African Countries: A Panel Dynamic Analysis. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 24(5), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2019/v24i530175

Chike, O. K., & Okeke, C. T. (2024). Assessing the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Unemployment Rate in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 24(4), 260–277. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2024/v24i41278

Chukwuemeka Nwamuo. (2022). Public expenditure and inflation rate in Nigeria: An empirical analysis. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 16(3), 411–418. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2022.16.3.1049

Dunga, H., & Maloma, I. (2024). Exploring the multifaceted dynamics of unemployment in South Africa. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147- 4478), 13(4), 277–285. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v13i4.3338

Falade, O. E., & Babatunde, D. (2020). Functional Government Spending, Unemployment and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria. Journal Of Economics And Development StudieS, 8(1), 111–123. https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.v8n1a9

Galib, Fadila., Abdad, M. Zaidi., Nikmatullah. (2025). Peran Strategis Pemerintah Dalam Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Islam Di Indonesia Berdasarkan Perspektif Al-Qur’an Dan Hadist: Kajian Investasi Syariah. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, Manajemen, dan Ekonomi Islam (JAM-EKIS), 8(1), 442-454. https://doi.org/10.36085/jamekis.v8i1.7597

Gözen, S. (2022). The Effect of Public Investment Expenditure on Unemployment in Turkey : Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. BILTURK, The Journal of Economics and Related Studies, 4(4), 213–233. https://doi.org/10.47103/bilturk.1172975.1.

Hawariyuni, W., & Andrasari, M. (2022). Role of Investment and Macroeconomic Variables on Unemployment in Indonesia. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 11(3), 321–328. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v11i3.52016

Hilom-Polinon, M., & Hakim, T. A. (2019). The impact of entry modes of Foreign Direct Investment towards unemployment: Evidence from Asian countries. International Journal of Business & Economic Development, 07(02), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.24052/IJBED/V07N02/ART-01

Ikani, K. S. (2024). The impact of foreign direct investment inflows on unemployment and economic growth in West Africa. Nurture, 18(4), 868–886. https://doi.org/10.55951/nurture.v18i4.902

Kamal, A. L. M. (2022). The Nexus between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Egypt: Revisiting Okun’s Law. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 22(24), 163–173. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2022/v22i24904

Karadzic, V. (2021). Relevance of Okun’s Law in Montenegro. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 17(1), 59–69. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2021.17-1.4

Kuncoro, mudrojad. (2018). Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah Teori dan Aplikas (Supriyanto & Mulyono, Eds.; 1st ed.). PT.Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Louail, B., & Ben Haj Hamida, H. (2021). Asymmetry Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Arab countries: Application of the OKUN Law during 1960-2017. Management, 25(2), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.2478/manment-2019-0070

Mahesh, B., & Hansraj, P. (2024). Impact Of Education On Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Analysis Of Brics Countries. International Journal of Progressive Research in Engineering Management and Science, 04(03), 184–188. https://doi.org/10.58257/IJPREMS32858

Misra, A. K., Kumari, M., & Sajid, M. (2024). Role of informal sector to combat unemployment in developing economy: A modeling study. Heliyon, 10(13), e33378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33378

Mohamed, A. A. (2024). Economic growth and unemployment nexus : empirical test of Okun ’ s law in Somalia. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(16), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-024-00337-y

Nadia, I., & Amri, K. (2023). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) terhadap Pengangguran. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Sekretari, 8(3), 125–134. https://doi.org/10.35870/jemensri.v8i3.3044

Nasution, B. I., Br. Tarigan, A. C., & Siregar, S. I. (2020). Investment and Unemployment Reduction: An Empirical Study of Indonesia using Panel Data Regression. Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Economics and Social Science, 71–79. https://doi.org/10.5220/0010356600710079

Ndlovu, S. G., Nradebe, T., Hmlambo, V., & Dnkonde, S. (2024). Contextualising Entrepreneurship As A Panacea To Youth Unemployment In South Africa. PRIZREN SOCIAL SCIENCE JOURNAL, 8(1), 48–58. https://doi.org/10.32936/pssj.v8i1.430

Ndukwu, justice ezebunwa, Njoku, kevin chinaka, & Chinaka, K. (2024). The Effect of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Management, 10(3), 30–48. https://doi.org/DOI:10.56201/ijssmr.v10.no3.2024.pg30.48

Nepram, D., Singh, S. P., & Jaman, S. (2021). The Effect of Government Expenditure on Unemployment in India : A State Level Analysis. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 763–769. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb

Nugroho, A. S., & Arif, M. (2024). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Pengangguran Se-Eks Karisidenan Pati Tahun 2010-2019. Primanomics : Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 22(1), 27–34. https://doi.org/10.31253/pe.v22i1.2456

Olkeba, A., Dula, T., Gutema, P., Tolossa, D., Mekuriaw, A., & Bekele, A. A. (2023). The effects of schooling on rural unemployment in Ethiopia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2273599

Opuala-Charles, S., & Oshilike, I. V. (2023). Educational Investment and Unemployment in Nigeria. International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, 11(3), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.37745/ijeld.13/vol11n3120

Putri, R. N., & Ash Shidiqie, J. S. (2023). Analisis faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Indonesia tahun 2015-2020. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(2), 220–225. https://doi.org/10.20885/JKEK.vol1.iss2.art9

Qamariyah, L., Mardianita W.P, O., & Rusgianto, S. (2022). Pengaruh IPM, Investasi, dan UMP terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Jawa Timur Tahun 2013-2020. OECONOMICUS Journal of Economics, 7(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.15642/oje.2022.7.1.1-15

Roni, M. N., & Hidayat, W. (2020). Analisis Sektor Ekonomi Unggulan Di Kota Batu Tahun 2012-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi (JIE), 4(1), 165–179.

Rusiadi, R., Hidayat, M., Rangkuty, D. M., Ferine, K. F., & Saputra, J. (2024). The Influence of Natural Resources, Energy Consumption, and Renewable Energy on Economic Growth in ASEAN Region Countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(3), 332–338. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15917

Saraireh, S. (2020). The Impact of Government Expenditures on Unemployment: A Case Study of Jordan. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 8(3), 189–203. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2020.83.189.203

Sari, P. Y. (2021). Teori Ekonomi Makro (I. Vidyafi, Ed.). PT.Raja Grafindo Persada.

Selmin, R. I., & suyanto. (2024). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Melalui Pdrb Perkapita Sebagai Variabel Intervening di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2012-2021. Soetomo Manajement Review, 2(2), 243–266.

Soukaina, K. (2023). Public spending and unemployment: data from eurozone countries. The EUrASEANs: Journal on Global Socio-Economic Dynamics, 6(6(43)), 181–190. https://doi.org/10.35678/2539-5645.6(43).2023.181-190

Sukirno, S. (2010). Makroekonomi Teori Pengantar (3). PT.Raja Grafindo Persada.

Suparmoko, & Bawana, R. I. (2007). Ekonomi (E. kasman Gafar, Ed.; 1). Penerbit Yudisthira.

Uslu, G., & Tatli, H. (2024). Factors affecting regional youth unemployment: micro-evidence on individuals. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 20(1), 16–42. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1374411

Vilakati, W., Semosa, P., & Ogujiuba, K. (2024). Effect of socio-economic variables on unemployment in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), 5130. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8.5130

Warsame, Z. A., & Mohamed, I. S. A. (2023). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Unemployment in Somalia. International Journal of Membrane Science and Technology, 10(3), 2256–2264. https://doi.org/10.15379/ijmst.v10i3.1951

Yanti, Suntra., Hadi, M. Fikry., Hidayat, Muhammad. (2025). A Comprehensive Analysis Of The Determinants Of Income Inequality Over The Past Decade In Indonesia “Panel Data Approach. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, Manajemen, dan Ekonomi Islam (JAM-EKIS), 8(1), 578-588. https://doi.org/10.36085/jamekis.v8i1.7686

Yenie, Y. (2023). Effect of Level of Education, Investment, Capital Expenditures and Economic Growth on Unemployment Rates in Palangka Raya City. Journal Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Universtas Palangka Raya : GROWTH, 8(2), 115–129. https://doi.org/10.52300/grow.v8i2.9170

Zuhroh, I., & Amir, F. (2021). Ekonomitrika Dengan Software Eviews (pertama). Penerbit Universitas Muhammdiyah Malang.

Diterbitkan

2025-05-31
Abstrak viewed = 0 times